Pro-Israel Bolsonaro Defies Polls, Wins First Round in Brazil

In an unexpected turn, right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, a known friend of the Jewish people and Chabad, finished first in Brazil’s presidential election and will face President Lula da Silva in a runoff on October 25. The result is being met with great joy in the Jewish community and among the Rebbe’s shluchim in Brazil.

Despite polls predicting otherwise, Bolsonaro emerged ahead. With all ballots counted, Bolsonaro won 47.03%, or 56.1 million votes, against 45.16%, or 53.9 million, for Lula. His Liberal Party also won 28 of the 81 Senate seats, up from nine.

Israel and the Jewish community are among the sharpest dividing lines in this race. Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is a strong conservative voice and an outspoken supporter of Israel.

He has previously visited Israel and toured Yehuda and Shomron, and recently met with representatives of the Confederação Israelita do Brasil. He has also pledged to restore full diplomatic relations, return ambassadors, move Brazil’s embassy to Yerushalayim, and visit Israel early in a presidency.

Lula has been one of Israel’s harshest critics internationally. He has accused Israel of genocide in Gaza, compared its actions to the Holocaust, and moved Brazil closer to the Palestinian side. Relations between the two countries have deteriorated significantly under his government.

About two months ago, Bolsonaro traveled to Argentina to address a pro-Israel conference and meet with President Javier Milei. At the opening event, he declared that he would also bring Brazil into the Isaac Accords, an initiative promoted by Milei and other pro-Israel leaders to deepen economic, diplomatic, technological, and security cooperation between Israel and Latin American countries.

The visit was part of his effort to build a close alliance with Milei and strengthen a conservative, pro-Israel bloc in the region.

During the trip, he met with the Rebbe’s shliach in Buenos Aires, Rabbi Chaim Oirechman, and spoke about his deep friendship toward Israel and his appreciation for Yiddishkeit. Bolsonaro and his team asked for a bracha for success in the elections, and Rabbi Oirechman wished that they should complete the mission President Milei began and continue painting the map of South America blue, the color of countries friendly to Israel.

Following the results, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, President Donald Trump, and President Milei each called Bolsonaro to congratulate him.

On the domestic front, Bolsonaro is running on a conservative platform focused on fighting organized crime, cutting government spending, lowering inflation, and strengthening ties with the United States. He has also called for a free-trade agreement across the Americas. Lula’s campaign centers on social programs, reducing inequality, and industrial policy.

The runoff will determine Brazil’s direction on the economy, security, and its relationship with Israel.