War Summary, Day 485: Netanyahu looking to extend first phase of the deal, Arab leaders protest deportation plan, discussions rise over the Shamgar Committee’s hostage deal recommendations, Hamas restoring electricity, rocket abilities and Iran working on faster method to reach nuclear bomb.
By Mrs. Bruria Efune
79 held captive in Gaza.
35 hostages confirmed murdered held in Gaza.
135 living hostages rescued.
41 hostage bodies rescued.
1,817 Israelis killed.
411 fallen soldiers and police in the battle in Gaza.
87 fallen soldiers in Northern Israel.
16 fallen soldiers and police in Judea & Samaria.
30,683 estimated projectiles fired at Israel.
80,000 Israelis displaced from their homes.
1 Jewish nation united in prayer, charity, and good deeds.
Top Headlines:
Hamas promises Russia to release Sasha soon
Netanyahu looking to extend first phase of the deal
Arab leaders protest deportation plan, want Palestinian State
Discussions rise over the Shamgar Committee’s recommendations
Hamas still testing the buffer zone
Hamas restoring electricity, rocket abilities
Iron Wall expanding, APCs in Samaria
Hezbollah weapons destroyed in Lebanon
Iran working on faster method to reach nuclear bomb
Hostages:
Senior Hamas officials told Russia that Sasha (Alexander) Tropanov will be released soon, and Maxim Herkin, another Israeli-Russian, will be prioritized in the second phase. Sasha is reportedly in a very fragile state of health, which is why the 28-year-old is set to be released in the first phase. Maxim, who is 36, is a father of two small children, and supports his mother and 12-year-old brother.
The names of hostages to be released his Shabbat won’t be known until Friday. While priority is meant to be given to living hostages, it’s possible that Hamas will choose to send bodies.
The remaining hostages or phase one are:
Itzik Elgarat
Ohad Ben Ami
Ariel Bibas
Kfir Bibas
Shiri Silberman-Bibas
Sagui Dekel-Chen
Yair Horn
Omer Wenkert
Alexander Trufanov
Ohad Yahalomi
Eliya Cohen
Or Levy
Oded Lifshitz
Avera Avraham Mengistu
Shlomo Mansour
Tsachi Idan
Ofer Calderon
Shoham Tal
Omer Shem-Tov
Hisham al-Sayed
Eli Sharabi
While Hamas told Yarden Bibas that his wife and children were killed, they did not yet formally tell that to Israel, despite Israel’s demand for clarity on their status. Israel has found no proof of Shiri, Ariel, and Kfir’s current whereabouts, nor proof that they are not living. However, the IDF voiced “grave concern” over whether they are alive. I
Sources close to Netanyahu told Jewish Insider that Netanyahu will likely push for an extension of the first phase of the deal, to give more time to create an alternative to the proposed second phase. The first phase extension would include the release of more hostages, in exchange for more terrorists released from prison.
Hamas seems very keen on getting to the second phase of the deal, and a senior Hamas official told the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat that the terror group is “prepared to provide all the necessary concessions in the negotiations of the phase to prevent the renewal of the war in Gaza.” The Hamas official claimed that they are coming from a position of strength, since they still have strong cards, including many Israeli hostages who will still be in their hands after the first phase. However, the concessions he speaks of are unlikely to include a full Hamas surrender.
Meanwhile in Egypt, around 70 notorious terrorists are trapped in a hotel. These were prisoners who were released in exchange for Israeli hostages, and were supposed to be deported via Egypt to a third country. However, no country agrees to take them, not even Algeria or Turkey. Egypt does not want them either, and therefore doesn’t let them leave the hotel, where they are still sitting in their Israeli prison clothing.
At the same time, the Foreign Ministers of Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan, along with a senior Palestinian Authority official, met in Cairo and penned a letter to U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, in protest of the Gaza deportation proposal. The Arab ministers cited concern that the displacement of Gazans would further exacerbate the Middle East’s huge refugee burden, and would cause radicalization and more terrorism. They also claimed that “Palestinians do not want to leave their land.”
Instead, the Arab leaders recommended rewarding the Palestinians with a state of their own, which the Arab countries would assist in building, and create “conditions that will ensure the security of Israel and the Palestinians.”
Separately, the Saudis continue to voice that they will only normalize relations with Israel if moves are made to establish a Palestinian State with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Netanyahu has already stressed that he will not reward terrorism by giving hopes for a Palestinian State. His entire coalition strongly believes in this, as does much of the opposition. The question is if the hostage deal combined with the Saudis can be tempting enough to bend on the issue.
The Shamgar Committee:
Discussions in Israel over the hostage deal have brought up the Shamgar Committee.
In 2008, the sitting Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, established the Shamgar Committee under the government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. The committee was tasked with formulating clear guidelines for prisoner exchanges and hostage negotiations in response to past problematic deals, particularly the 2004 Tenenbaum deal and ongoing negotiations for Gilad Shalit.
The government was growing concerned that they had created a monster by negotiating with terrorists, and releasing prisoners in exchange for hostages—thus encouraging more hostage taking. Meir Shamgar, former President of Israel’s Supreme Court, was chosen to lead the committee of experts and security officials.
The committee did in depth research for nearly four years, analyzing past hostage deals and failures. Then in 2012, they presented their recommendations. The report was partially classified, with certain key recommendations made public. Those key recommendations included:
A kidnapped soldier shouldn’t be exchanged for more than a small few terrorist prisoners.
A single (non soldier) prisoner should only be exchanged for one terrorist—and a body for a body.
Negotiations should be kept strictly classified.
The decision to release terrorists should be made only by the government, and specifically the Prime Minister’s Office.
Efforts should be made to separate the families of the hostages from the decision-makers to prevent undue pressure.
The state’s obligation to return hostages should be prioritized in order to prevent incentivizing civilian kidnappings:
- A soldier captured during operational activity.
- An Israeli who was kidnapped as a result of enemy activity.
- An Israeli who was kidnapped beyond the border and taken by force.
- An Israeli who crossed the border of their own accord and was kidnapped.
The Shamgar Committee recommended legislating a formal policy into law, in order to increase the effectiveness of the policy. In 2015, a group of Knesset members, including Yair Lapid, Ofer Shelah, Avigdor Lieberman, and Bar-Lev, proposed legislation to formalize the committee’s conclusions. The proposal was placed on the Knesset’s table when Netanyahu was Prime Minister, but was not brought to a vote.
Discussions in Israel circulate around a) Netanyahu’s failure in not legislating the policy, and 2) Yair Lapid’s hypocrisy in pushing for the exact opposite of everything he wanted to legislate.
Gaza:
Hamas keeps sending people (unclear if they’re all Hamas terrorists, or some supporting civilians) to approach IDF positions in the buffer zone and Philadelphi Corridor. IDF troops fired warning shots today in several areas, stopping them from approaching. Hamas is likely to continue doing this, hoping for some condemnation against Israel to start over it, which they hope will lead Israel to relax security in the area.
With the help if foreign aid, Hamas is beginning to restore electricity in parts of Gaza, especially in the Central Gaza area.
It’s estimated that Hamas still has a few hundred rockets, including some long range. Now that they’ve rebuilt their fuel supplies, and have the time to reorganize, they are probably able to target Central Israel and Jerusalem again, though not at a fraction of their prewar abilities.
Judea & Samaria:
Operation Iron Wall is continuing to ramp up. Troops are in Jenin, Tulkarem, Tubas, and the Tamun areas in Samaria.
For the first time, the IDF is using “Eitan” armored personnel carriers (APCs) during operations, specifically in the Tubas area. The APCs are being used for supply, extraction, and other missions, in areas rife with snipers and roadside bombs.
Efi Triger, of Galgalatz (Army radio) reported a terror attack foiled in recent days. A terrorist from Jenin managed to infiltrate Israeli territory, and wrote on his social media that he was ready to die as a “martyr.” The Shin Bet sent an elite “Tequila” team, which captured the terrorist in Kfar Qara (an Arab city in Northern Israel). He was aught moments before heading out to carry an attack.
Lebanon:
IDF troops are still finding extensive Hezbollah infrastructure in Southern Lebanon, in the eastern areas (near the Syrian side) which the IDF still holds. Today they demolished several Hezbollah weapons depots, which included mortars, missiles, rockets, explosive devices, guns, and other military equipment.
Hezbollah still has a large amount of missiles and rockets, possibly in the thousands, including long-range rockets which can reach Central Israel and Jerusalem. Israel is preparing for the likelihood of a return to war with Hezbollah, in which they will target the remaining supplies, held deep inside Lebanese territory.
Iran:
The New York Times reports that new intelligence about Iran’s nuclear program has convinced American officials that a covert team of IRGC scientists are exploring a faster approach to developing an atomic bomb.
The IDF is continuing to prepare and practice for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities—but has chosen to keep a low profile about it. Trump is expected to back an Israeli attack if negotiations fail, but unlikely to send the U.S. military to directly assist.
Other:
The Trump administration has requested from congressional leaders to push the approval of a $1 billion arms sale to Israel. The sale includes 1,000 pound bombs, JDAM kits (used to turn bombs into guided missiles, previously blocked by the Biden admin), D9 bulldozers, and other equipment.
The U.S. is expected to withdraw from the UN Human Rights Council, and defund UNRWA. The U.S. is the largest donor to UNRWA, giving over $340 million annually.
Following Israel’s ban on UNRWA, Israel’s Housing Minister, Yitzchak Goldknopf, says he ordered a review to reclaim the UNRWA building in Jerusalem for Israeli housing.
PM Netanyahu tentatively extended his visit until after Shabbat, due to the immense amount of U.S. officials requesting meetings with him, and the intensity of negotiations.
Sponsored by Mendel & Dini Polichenco, for blessing and protection of our dear חיילים and כוחות הביטחון.
The list of remaining hostages to be released in phase one includes:
Ofer Calderon
Shoham Tal
Just pointing out:
a) Ofer Calderon was already released (so there are 20 left in this phase).
b) His name is Tal Shoham (husband of Adi Shoham, and father of Yahel & Naveh Shoham, who were released in last deal). The last names are in alphabetical order (Alef Beis).