War summary, Day 465: Hostage negotiations in advance stages, Trump’s envoy putting immense pressure on Israel to concede on key issues, five fallen heroes in Gaza, Danny Danon says Israel might need to reconsider withdrawal in Lebanon, and three Houthi attacks.
By Mrs. Bruria Efune
98 held captive in Gaza.
36 hostages confirmed murdered held in Gaza.
117 living hostages rescued.
40 hostage bodies rescued.
1,814 Israelis killed.
411 fallen soldiers and police in the battle in Gaza.
87 fallen soldiers in Northern Israel.
14 fallen soldiers and police in Judea & Samaria.
30,683 estimated projectiles fired at Israel.
88,000 Israelis displaced from their homes.
1 Jewish nation united in prayer, charity, and good deeds.
Top Headlines:
– Negotiations in advance stages
– Trump’s envoy putting immense pressure on Israel to concede on key issues
– Known details of the deal
– Mixed responses across Israel
– Five fallen heroes in Gaza—more in critical condition
– Danny Danon says Israel might need to reconsider withdrawal in Lebanon
– Three Houthi attacks, sirens across central Israel
– Hind Rajab Foundation trying to arrest Druze general in Italy
Hostages—the deal:
Negotiations are now in advanced stages, and an imminent deal is becoming highly probable—but is not finalized. According to reports, both Israel and Hamas have made major concessions under pressure from the incoming Trump administration, via Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East.
Witkoff has been in Qatar pushing the negotiations, and on Fox News, praised Sheikh Mohammed, the Prime Minister of Qatar, and host of Hamas leaders, for doing “God’s work.” On a quick visit to Israel, Witkoff laid immense pressure on Netanyahu to give up on some major red lines to get to a deal before January 20th.
Israeli officials told reporters that the progress in the deal is due to pressure on Hamas after the fall of the Iranian-led Axis in the Middle East—particularly the fall of Assad and near-defeat of Hezbollah.
There are many rumors of what the deal does and doesn’t include. Here is what was verified by Israeli officials in an official press briefing, with a few added details from official sources:
In the first phase of the deal, which lasts six weeks:
– Hamas will release 33 “humanitarian” hostages. This includes children, women, female soldiers, adults over the age of 50, and the sick. Israel is working under the assumption that most of these hostages are alive, but Hamas has not confirmed the status of any of them. It is unclear if the hostages will be released all at once, or gradually over the six weeks—the latter seems more likely.
– Complete ceasefire.
– Hundreds of convicted terrorists will be released from Israeli prisons. This will not include October 7th terrorists. Murderers in the first degree will be released to Gaza, non-murderers who are from Judea and Samaria might be allowed to return home. According to some sources, the number of terrorists released will depend on how many of the hostages are returned alive.
– IDF forces will gradually withdraw from the Gaza Strip, remaining only in the buffer zone and Philadelphi Corridor around the perimeter of Gaza
– The Rafah Crossing will be opened for Gazans who need to leave to Egypt for medical treatment. It is unclear who will be operating the crossing.
– Towards the end of this phase, after the IDF withdraws from the Netzarim Corridor, unarmed Gazans will be allowed to return to the north of Gaza. The officials said that there will be some measure of security arrangements to prevent armed terrorists from returning, however, it seems that this has not been figured out yet.
– Negotiations will continue in order to lead to the second and third phase of the deal, of which many details have not yet been agreed on.
– After six weeks, if no agreement comes about, Israel can resume the war and return to evacuated positions. (This is according to a reliable source, but not an official source, told to Doron Kadosh of IDF radio.)
In the second phase:
– The remaining hostages and hostage bodies will be released.
– More terrorists will be released. (Unverified reports say that this will be over a thousand, and include some of he most notorious terrorists.)
– Completion of IDF withdrawal from Gaza, including from the Philadelphi Corridor, which will have a new security arrangement agreed on by Israel.
In the third phase:
– The reconstruction of Gaza will begin. In this phase, construction materials will be brought into Gaza, including materials which Hamas repurposes to create rockets and other weapons.
– Arrangements for the future governance of Gaza will be made.
Officials say that Israel will not completely withdraw from Gaza until the war’s goals are achieved—however, this contradicts the agreement presented. The war’s goals were to return all the hostages, and defeat Hamas. This agreement leaves Hamas standing, and empowered.
Details which still need to be worked out to reach a deal:
– The size of the buffer zone which Israel will stay in (allegedly, Hamas wants it to be under 500 meters in depth, and Israel wants it to be 2 kilometers).
– The schedule of the IDF withdrawal during the first phase.
– Who will control the Philadelphi Corridor.
Below are some unverified details being circulated in Israeli and Arab media:
– In the first phase, October 7th terrorists in Israeli prisons will be given better conditions.
– Some of the released terrorists will be deported from Israel and Gaza for at least 5 years.
– Muhammad Sinwar (the brother and successor of Yahya Sinwar) might be given safe passage out of Gaza in the first phase.
– Hamas asked for and Israel refused to hand over Yahya Sinwar’s body.
– Marwan Barghouti will not be released (at least not in the first phase).
– Huge amounts of humanitarian aid will be pumped into Gaza, immediately in the first phase. There will be no security to prevent Hamas taking the aid and using it to control Gaza and profit.
– Witkoff is pressuring Israel and Hamas to sign a deal by Wednesday.
The major concessions which had formerly been red lines to Israel:
– Israel is no longer insisting that Hamas provide a list of the hostages and whether they are alive or not.
– Israel is not demanding that all the hostages in the first phase be alive.
– The IDF will fully withdraw from Gaza, including the Philadelphi Corridor, which will possibly be handed to Egypt.
– Many terrorists will be allowed to return home and not be exiled.
– Gazans will be allowed to return to Northern Gaza in the first phase with negligible security filters.
Hamas’s concessions:
– Israel isn’t guaranteeing the second phase of the deal, and can return to war if no agreement comes about. (Again, only according to a reliable source, but not an official source, told to Doron Kadosh of IDF radio.)
– Female IDF soldiers will be released in the first phase, before a complete IDF withdrawal. (Though Hamas has not guaranteed that they, or any of he hostages, will be alive.)
– Slightly less terrorists will be released than Hamas asked for.
– Marwan Barghouti won’t be released from prison.
If the deal collapses at this point, and is not signed, it will most likely be because Hamas demands assurances that the deal will lead to a complete withdrawal, with a guaranteed phase two and three, and Israel refuses.
Hostages—support and opposition for the deal:
While none of the mainstream government parties say the deal is particularly good, it seems that enough are willing to vote for it, just to get the hostages home (and avoid consequences from the U.S. if a deal doesn’t go through).
Opposition leader, Yair Lapid, is in support of the deal, and told Netanyahu that he is willing to lend votes to pass it, if Netanyahu’s own government doesn’t give enough support, and even prop up Netanyahu’s government until the end of his term.
Within the coalition, support is divided. It appears that most, if not all of Netanyahu’s own Likud ministers will support the deal, as well as Gideon Sa’ar’s break-off party. (There are MKs from Likud who are against the deal, but only minister votes are really needed.) The Haredi Shas and United Torah Judaism parties have both said they will support it.
Those in the coalition not in support of the deal come from the Religious Zionist and Otzma Yehudit parties. During a cabinet meeting today, Minister Betzalel Smotrich called the deal a catastrophe and surrender, which would abandon all the achievements of the war, the blood of the soldiers, and leave many hostages behind (indicating that Smotruch does not think the deal will enter the second phase). Smotrich said his part will not support it, but did not threaten to resign from the government.
In a closed faction meeting for the Religious Zionist party, MK Simcha Rothman called for the party to resign from the government over the deal. Party minister Orit Struk joined a pubic protest against the deal, saying that’s it’s not time to surrender, but to double down on Hamas, and bring the hostages home under better conditions.
Minister Ben Gvir, chairman of Otzma Yehudit, has previously said that he will not support any such deal, and it’s highly unlikely that he will. However, he has been unusually quiet today.
Due to Lapid’s support, it’s unclear if the Religious Zionist and Otzma Yehudit parties can collapse the coalition.
Moving on to public opinion: The larger forum representing a majority of families of hostages is in support of the deal, if it leads to all hostages returning home. I.e., they want a guarantee for the second phase.
The Tikva Forum, which represents some of the hostage families, and the Gevura Forum, which represents families of fallen soldiers and reservists, as well as many wounded soldiers and reservists, joined together for a protest firmly against the deal. Zvika Mor, the father of hostage Eitan Mor, called on Netanyahu to reject the deal, which will only pass the horrors onto our children and grandchildren, repeating the errors of the Oslo Accords, 2005 Gaza withdrawal, and Shalit deal which released Yahya Sinwar—the mastermind of October 7th.
A significant number of combat soldiers are against the deal, which they say gives up everything they fought for, and the blood of their fallen friends. They point out that in the last three months alone, 55 soldiers were killed while cleaning out Northernmost Gaza, and this deal will undo all of their work. Even if they return after the first phase, the pattern predicts that many more soldiers will be killed regaining the lost accomplishments than the number of hostages released alive.
Many on Israel’s right expressed shock that Trump is pressuring Israel into such huge concessions—worse than Biden—which allow Hamas to continue to rule Gaza and attack Israel. Amit Segal, Israel’s top political journalist, commented that we will only know if this is true once Trump takes office, when we will see if he prevents Israel from resuming the war, or gives Israel the backing to eradicate Hamas.
Gaza:
The IDF announced the names of five heroes who fell in battle in Northern Gaza today:
Cpt. Yair Yakov Shushan, 23, from Ma’alot-Tarshiha
Staff Sgt. Yahav Hadar, 20, from Kfar Tavor
Staff Sgt. Guy Karmiel, 20, from Gedera
Staff Sgt. Yoav Feffer, 19, from Herzliya
Staff Sgt. Aviel Wiseman, 20, from Poria
The fallen soldiers were working with explosives to destroy Hamas buildings in Beit Hanoun, when the explosives detonated early, collapsing the building. It’s unknown why, and whether Hamas fire triggered it. Ten other soldiers were injured in the incident, eight of whom are in serious condition.
IDF troops on ground say they have not yet located and destroyed all the ammunition in Northernmost Gaza, (definitely not in Northern Gaza), and if they leave now, Hamas will be left with plenty arms.
There was heavy IDF bombing across Gaza today, though the IDF has not yet given details on the targets. Heavy airstrikes can be expected ahead of a possibly ceasefire deal, in order to get the last kicks at weakening Hamas.
Lebanon:
Israeli UN Ambassador Danny Danon warned the UN Security Council that Hezbollah is rearming with Iran’s help, and if nothing is done to stop it, Israel will need to reconsider withdrawing at the approaching 60-day deadline.
Lebanon appointed a new Prime Minister: Nawaf Salam.
In Lebanon’s political system, power is balanced between the religions through allocated political positions. The President (arguably the most powerful position) must be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of Parliament must be a Shia Muslim.
Nawaf Salam was not Hezbollah’s choice for Prime Minster. However, he is no friend of Israel either. According to UN Watch’s Hillel Neuer, Salam is a longtime supporter of Ayatollah Khamenei, Fidel Castro, and Bashar Assad. He was also also heading the ICJ, including the case against Israel.
Yemen:
The Houthis in Yemen attacked Israel three times today.
In the morning, an IAF helicopter shot down a Houthi attack drone in southern Israel. No sirens were sounded, as no populated areas were at risk.
In the evening, the IDF intercepted a ballistic missile before it entered Israeli airspace. Sirens were sounded the Shomron areas, and some in nearby northern communities.
At 3am, after multiple attempts, the IDF intercepted another ballistic missile over Israel. This one triggered sirens in the wider Tel Aviv area, from Herzilya and up until Ashdod, including areas near Jerusalem, like Beit Shemesh.
There were no direct injuries reported, but several were injured while running to shelter in their sleep.
Iran:
The IRGC has been publishing a series of videos showing off various capabilities, including what they claim is a daunting laser-powered air defense system (likely useless against Israel), and hundreds of new attack drones, and underground storages of long-range missiles.
Other:
The Hind Rajab Foundation is calling on Italian authorities to arrest IDF Major General Ghassan Alian, who is currently visiting Rome. Alian, a Druze-Israeli, is the head of the IDF’s COGAT division, and is responsible for delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza.
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VIDEO:
For all those who look up to trump as G-D he’s clearly just a egotistical, narcissistic, malicious, psychopath who only cares about his speech on Jan 20th where he can say that he stopped the war in Gaza, he clearly does not care about Israel nor about the hostages, i pray to HASHEM that Israel will have the back bone to say NO and not sign this deal, perhaps we would have been better with Harris.
Are you kidding? She and her party openly support Hamas.
As for your first sentence, it’s a straw man, since no one looks up to Trump as G-d. Though I suppose that Democrats, who always worship their politicians (cf. “the Lightworker”), might think so.