War Day 464: Terror Attack Thwarted, IDF Strikes in Lebanon

War Summary, Day 464: Reports of an imminent deal, but large gaps remain, huge terror attack prevented, Iran dipping into reserve oil to strengthen its proxies, and Lebanon and UNIFIL clearly not keeping their side of the agreement.

By Mrs. Bruria Efune

98 held captive in Gaza.
37 hostages confirmed murdered held in Gaza.
117 living hostages rescued.
40 hostage bodies rescued.
1,809 Israelis killed.
406 fallen soldiers and police in the battle in Gaza.
87 fallen soldiers in Northern Israel.
14 fallen soldiers and police in Judea & Samaria.
30,683 estimated projectiles fired at Israel.
88,000 Israelis displaced from their homes.
1 Jewish nation united in prayer, charity, and good deeds.

Top Headlines:

– Reports of an imminent deal, but large gaps remain
– The deal is not receiving wide positive reception in Israel
– Thank G-d: no fallen heroes in Gaza
– IDF being more thorough than ever in Northernmost Gaza
– Huge terror attack prevented
– Woman dies of injuries from Hezbollah missile
– IAF airstrikes deep into Lebanon
– Iran dipping into reserve oil to strengthen its proxies

Hostages:

U.S. National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan stated that an agreement between Israel and Hamas is close but not finalized. A final draft for the proposal is being written, and will soon be presented to both Israel and Hamas. After expressing optimism that there will be a deal, Sullivan added that “there is also a possibility, as has happened many times, that Hamas specifically will remain in an uncompromising position.”

There are some reports that Hamas has given a list of hostages who will be released in the first phase of the deal, but I haven’t found anything reliable to back that up, only the contrary. There are still significant gaps left to close, including that Israel insists that the deal does not end the war, and Hamas insists that it does.

Both Biden and Trump have delegates in Qatar, working towards a deal. Trump’s team has repeatedly emphasized that they want a deal before January 20th—but that if there isn’t, the conditions will be much worse for Hamas. At the same time, a Saudi paper reports tat Steve Witkoff (Trump’s envoy) reassured Egypt and Qatar that under Trump, the U.S. would “continue to work to achieve a ‘just agreement’ in Gaza that would end the war soon.”

Not much is known about the deal in consideration right now, other than that it is similar to the deal proposed by Biden back in March, and releases a significant amount of convicted and dangerous terrorists. The March proposal worked with three stages, each releasing a number of the terrorists. The deal had and a low likelihood that the second stage would be reached, and even lower likelihood for the third. If the third stage is reached, it’ll likely be in a very long time. In other words, the deal will not bring all the hostages home any time soon; for now, only a few. 

Development Minister, Orit Struck, already came out against the deal today, saying “Releasing hundreds of murderous terrorists with blood on their hands? The deal on the table is a reward for terrorism and a victory for Hamas.”

Members of the Tikva Forum, which represents some of the families of hostages, and of the Gevura Forum, which represents families of fallen soldiers and of reservists, are demanding that he hostages be brought home on different terms. They say that the deal in discussion gives Hamas the upper hand by allowing them to dictate the rules, doesn’t bring home all the hostages, and allows Hamas to continue controlling Israel by holding onto the remaining hostages—not even revealing which of them are still alive.

The larger forum representing families of hostages is campaigning in support of the deal, while also demanding that it bring home all the hostages—which this one doesn’t do.

While there are many in support of the deal, there is no one who claims that the deal will be a military win for Israel. It will bring a few hostages home alive and a few more bodies, maybe the rest home in the future, with a tiny few still alive. But it will also leave Hamas still standing and able to terrorize Israel, even if severely weakened.

Gaza:

Thank G-d, there were no fallen heroes announced today!

A siren warning of a drone on the Gaza border was a false alarm.

There are currently three divisions operating in Gaza. The 162nd Division is in Northernmost Gaza, particularly in Beit Hanoun. The 99th Division is in the Netzarim Corridor, which is used to launch small-scale operations in Gaza City, Central Gaza, and Khan Younis. The 143rd Division (aka the Gaza Division) is operating in Rafah, along the Philadelphi Corridor, and in the buffer zone which stretches along the length Gaza’s border with Israel.

The IDF issued evacuation warnings for parts of Nuseirat, in Central Gaza, ahead of airstrikes.

There were reports of IDF shelling in Nuseirat and nearby al-Bureij, as well as reports of airstrikes in Zeitoun in Gaza City, and Rafah in Southern Gaza.

The main battles remain in Northernmost Gaza, where a painful 50 IDF heroes have lost their lives in the last few months. Currently, one brigade is in Beit Hanoun, and two in Jabalia. While the IDF has operated in this area many times before, especially in Beit Hanoun, it has always been a rushed operation with the goal of defeating specific Hamas battalions—but never with enough time to completely wipe them out. In the previous operations, the iDF found and destroyed all the large tunnels, and destroyed most weapons, but missed some small tunnels, and left some weapons. 

This time, the IDF is moving slowly, and thoroughly. It’s estimated that 40% of Beit Hanoun is fully cleaned. Around 30-50 terrorists remain in Beit Hanoun, some of which are highly skilled fighters, and others who are new recruits. The terrorists have far less arms than previously, and rely mostly on setting up booby traps with IEDs. Troops have come across over 30 of these so far, of which 3 had fatal results. Occasionally, gun battles break out, mostly in tight alleys between buildings.

In this slow and thorough operation, troops are eliminating a few terrorists each day, finding handfuls of weapons, and destroying small tunnels totaling several kilometers between them.

In Rafah, Southernmost Gaza, troops are also still searching for and finding, more tunnels, weapons, and terrorists.  

Judea & Samaria:

The Shin Bet and elite counterterrorism forces stopped two terrorists from Jenin who were driving on their way to carry out a terror attack. The terrorists had two loaded M16 assault rifles, vests, face masks, and backup ammunition. The terrorists were members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group. Thank G-d they were stopped—they were trained and ready for what could have had a horrific outcome.

Lebanon:

Tamar Edri, 75, succumbed to her wounds after being injured in a Hezbollah missile attack two months ago. She leaves behind her husband, four daughters, and nine grandchildren.

Sirens in Yaron, Upper Galilee, were due to a false identification. 

Late Sunday evening, the IDF struck multiple Hezbollah targets north of the Litani River, including in the village of Houmine al-Faouqa, in the Nabatieh District and in the Janta area in the Beqaa Valley, close to the border with Syria.

The IDF says that these targets were struck only after the IDF issued repeated requests and warnings to Lebanon and the ceasefire oversight committee, and after the IDF provided definitive evidence of Hamas rearming at these sites, and requested that Lebanon and UNIFIL fulfill their obligations and take care of it. Following the conditions of the ceasefire, since Lebanon did not take care of it, the IDF did.

Among the targets struck by Israel: a rocket launcher site, a military site, and crossings on the Syria-Lebanon border which Hezbollah was using to smuggle weapons.

Israel is supposed to completely withdraw from Lebanon in less than two weeks, but Lebanon and UNIFIL are clearly not keeping their side of the agreement.

Iran:

The Wall Street Journal reported that over the past two months, Iran has exported nearly 3 million barrels of Iranian oil from an emergency storage facility in China, in order to strengthen its proxies in the Middle East.

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