War Day 468: Hamas Adding New Ceasefire Conditions, Egypt Building Forces in Sinai

War Summary, Day 468: Hamas is still trying to put subtle changes in the agreement, Smotrich has not yet decided on leaving the coalition with Ben Gvir, heavy airstrikes in Gaza, Egyptian intelligence head misled the Shin Bet, Egypt violating Camp David Accords by building up forces in Sinai and Houthis will stop firing when ceasefire starts.

By Mrs. Bruria Efune

98 held captive in Gaza.
36 hostages confirmed murdered held in Gaza.
117 living hostages rescued.
40 hostage bodies rescued.
1,814 Israelis killed.
411 fallen soldiers and police in the battle in Gaza.
87 fallen soldiers in Northern Israel.
14 fallen soldiers and police in Judea & Samaria.
30,683 estimated projectiles fired at Israel.
88,000 Israelis displaced from their homes.
1 Jewish nation united in prayer, charity, and good deeds.

Top Headlines:

  • Hamas is still trying to put subtle changes in the agreement
  • The Israeli government cabinet has not yet voted to approve the deal
  • There will be enough cabinet votes to approve the deal
  • Smotrich has not yet decided on leaving the coalition with Ben Gvir
  • Smotrich wants guarantee that there will be a return to war
  • Very mixed messages on whether Israel will be forced into the complete withdrawal
  • Israel preparing for increased terrorism from terrorists released to Judea and Samaria
  • Heavy airstrikes in Gaza
  • Egyptian intelligence head misled the Shin Bet
  • Egypt building up forces in Sinai—violating Camp David Accords
  • Houthis will stop firing when ceasefire starts

Hostages:

Loose Ends

The Israeli government cabinet has not yet voted on the ceasefire-hostage deal.

Negotiators, particularly from the U.S. and Qatar, keep insisting that the deal is finalized, and there are only technical details to be ironed out. They insist that the agreement should be signed and get started even if those details aren’t yet clarified. This evening, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken repeated that it’s normal for there to be “loose ends” in a challenging deal, but that they are being worked on, and it shouldn’t hold anything back.

Israel Hayom reports that the American administration is shocked at the delay, and insists that the deal must begin on Sunday, or else it could lead to Hamas collapsing the agreement.

However, Netanyahu does not want to sign the final deal until the details are all closed, in order to prevent being forced into an even worse situation. Hamas is still insisting on changing the conditions for releasing terrorists. They want to be able to request the release of any terrorists, without the agreed upon clause that Israel can veto requests for notorious killers and terrorist icons, such as Marwan Barghouti. A day earlier, they had been insisting on a more rapid IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor.

A source in Netanyahu’s office told Israel Hayom that Hamas would likely get their way with these demands if the Israeli cabinet votes for the deal without all details written and closed, due to pressure to keep the deal going once its started. For now, the cabinet vote has been tentatively rescheduled to after Shabbat, with Netanyahu insisting that it won’t happen until the loose ends are tied up, and the head of the Shin Bet and Mossad return from the negotiating table in Qatar.

Update right before publishing: There are new reports that Israel signed the deal, and the cabinet will vote on Friday.

Coalition Votes

All cabinet members of Likud, Shas, UTJ, and New Hope are expected to vote in favor, and will make the majority needed to approve the deal. Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist will vote against. The two parties do not have enough votes to stop a cabinet vote. However, if they combine, they do have enough votes to potentially collapse the coalition (if Lapid doesn’t prop it up for Netanyahu).

The Otzma Yehudit party (minus Almog Cohen) gave a press conference, in which they said that they will leave the coalition if the deal goes through. Party leader, Itamar Ben Gvir, called the deal “reckless,” since it will release hundreds of murderous terrorists, immediately allow thousands of terrorists in Gaza to return to the north of the strip, withdraw from the Philadelphi (which will allow Hamas to smuggle in more weapons and rockets), and is unlikely to bring all the hostages home. Ultimately, Ben Gvir says the deal “will lead to the end of the war when Hamas has not yet been defeated, with a significant ability to rebuild itself.”

Ben Gvir said that if the war is restarted at full strength to defeat Hamas, then his party will consider returning to the coalition.

Otzma Yehudit alone does not have enough seats to collapse the coalition, and therefore called on Religious Zionists, led by Betzalel Smotrich, to join them. The party has not yet made a decision about staying in the coalition, and is waiting on Netanyahu to give them guarantees.

One of the guarantees the Smotrich is demanding from Netanyahu, on a signed paper, is that the IDF will return to war in Gaza, and complete the eradication of Hamas. Netanyahu is unlikely to risk any public guarantee, as it will almost certainly collapse the deal, and have the blame put on him. It is possible that Smotrich may wait until the end of the 6 weeks of the first phase, and if the war doesn’t restart at that point, and instead the IDF begins withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor, then his party will leave the coalition.

Smotrich is also demanding increased security operations in Judea and Samaria, since the deal will release hundreds of terrorists into the area, and is expected to cause a sharp rise in terrorism. Netanyahu appears to have agreed to this.

The Philadelphi Corridor & War’s End

There is a big disconnect between all the parties involved on the issue of the Philadelphi Corridor, and whether this deal will bring about an end to the war. (The Philadelphi Corridor is the stretch of land on the Gazan side of the Gaza-Egypt border, through which Hamas smuggled huge amounts of weapons and rockets.)

Netanyahu’s office insists that Israel will be able to return to war (with strong American support) at any point if Hamas breaks the agreement, or at the end of the first phase, if no agreement comes about for the second phase, and therefore, the IDF won’t be forced to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor, and will remain in the agreed-upon position during the first six weeks.

However, the withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor begins immediately after 6 weeks and is completed within 8 days, even if negotiations are still ongoing for the second phase, with no agreement made. Egyptian officials insist that the ceasefire agreement will hold, even if negotiations for the second phase drag out past the first six weeks. In other words, even if they see that no agreement is coming about for the second phase, Hamas can drag out negotiations and force an IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi.

The second phase is supposed to include Hamas disarming. Hamas will try to find ways around it, while Israel will try to find ways to enforce it. The negotiators will try to find a third party to enforce it, who will be trusted by both Israel and Hamas. Hamas is almost guaranteed to find enough people in the third party who they can bribe. Hamas has a solid record of either overpowering or secretly working together with any force put in place to control them.

It appears that most of the Israeli government coalition does not believe that the deal will reach the second phase, but Qatar, Egypt, and both the Biden and Trump administrations believe it will. U.S. officials insist that the point in the deal is an end to the war. Trump has indicated that he wants this to be an end to the war, and that he believes the deal could bring about an end to Hamas.

Hamas is still demanding guarantees that the deal will go through all three phases, leading to a complete IDF withdrawal, and full rebuild of Gaza. While they haven’t received a complete guarantee, Qatar, Egypt, and the United States announced that they will assist in implementing all three stages. Hamas took this as a reason to celebrate victory. Even the Iranian regime announced that the ceasefire in Gaza is a “victory for the Palestinian resistance.”

At the same time, multiple members of Trump’s National Security Team have given strong reassurances to Israel that they will give Israel full power to destroy Hamas, whether by deal or by war.

Amichai Chikli, a Likud minister (formerly from Bennet’s Yamina party), wrote a long post on X (Twitter), in which he explains his belief that this deal will not lead to an end to the war or withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, but that is it does happen, he will resign from his position as a minister in the government.

(With all the emphasis on the Philadelphi Corridor, it’s important not to forget that the withdrawal from the Netzarim Corridor, which currently blocks terrorists from returning to Northern Gaza, will begin almost immediately.)

Reception Across Israel

The general feeling in Israel is currently very tense. People are hopeful and excited to see hostages return home alive, afraid to find out who of the hostages were killed, and terrified of the cost of their freedom.

Families of hostages who are expected to be returned home in the first phase of the deal are holding their breaths, feeling hopeful but afraid to hope. Families of male hostages that would only be released in the second phase are concerned that their loved ones won’t come home. The family of Yossi and Eli Sharabi are emotionally torn, because they expect one sibling to come home, and the other not.

Families of hostages who were killed by Hamas say that they are happy about the hostages who will return home alive, but are concerned that this deal does not guarantee that the bodies of their loved ones will be returned for burial.

Amidst extensive speculation nation-wide, the parents of the Bibas family have asked for privacy.

Those most apprehensive of the deal are families of reservists and of the 800 fallen soldiers, and people who live in Judea and Samaria.

Families of reservists who gave up most of the last 14 months of their lives, or their entire lives, are worried that their accomplishments in Gaza will all be erased. While there are some who believe the sacrifices were worth bringing the hostages home, and that the destruction of Hamas’s tunnels and infrastructure sent them back a good amount, a strong majority are very upset, and only hopeful that the war will continue.

In Judea and Samaria, where many inprisoned terrorists will be returned to PA villages and cities, Jewish locals are concerned about the expected rise in terrorism.

Hundreds of people protested against the deal across Jerusalem today.

Gaza:

Thank G-d, there were no fallen IDF soldiers today.

Sirens on the border were a false alarm.

While negotiators have been pressuring Israel to halt the fire even before the ceasefire agreement comes into effect, the IDF does not appear to be doing that.

The last few days have seen heavy airstrikes across Gaza, especially in Gaza City and Central Gaza, with around 50 airstrikes in the last day. The strikes are targeting terrorists, weapon depots, rocket launchers, weapon manufacturing sites, and observation posts. An estimated 90+ terrorists have been eliminated in airstrikes since Wednesday.

An overnight strike in Gaza City eliminated a Hamas Nukhba terrorist who participated in the massacre at the Nova Festival on October 7th.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi visited troops in Beit Hanoun, Northern Gaza, today. He held an assessment and briefed the troops on the military action expected in the coming days.

Avi Weiss, a retired high ranking police officer, reported that on the morning of October 7th, Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar was deceived by the head of the Egyptian intelligence. Early in the morning, when initial Israeli intelligence reported that Hamas was preparing to attack, the Egyptian head of intelligence reassured Ronen Bar that Hamas was not going to do anything. Ronen Bar completely trusted him, and decided not to activate security measures. The current assessment is that the Egyptian intelligence head deliberately misled the Shin Bet chief, who failed by believing him.

Meanwhile, Egypt is violating the Camp David Accords peace agreement with Israel, and has deployed hundreds of armored vehicles, and dozens of tanks, in the Sinai Peninsula, near Rafah (which is minutes away from the Egypt-Israel border). The common assumption is that this is to prevent Hamas infiltration once the IDF leaves the Philadelphi Corridor, but many in Israel are skeptical, and concerned.

Judea & Samaria:

The Shin Bet and IDF have been carrying out counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria throughs the week. Israeli forces arrested 50 wanted terrorists, confiscated weapons, and terror cash funds. Two airstrikes in Jenin over the week eliminated ten terrorists.

Today, exchanged of fire between IDF troops and terrorists were reported in Tulkarm.

On Friday, the Israeli government cabinet is expected to vote on new security measures and increased forces in Judea and Samaria. This vote follows one of Smotrich’s conditions for not collapsing the coalition.

During the ceasefire agreement, hundreds of terrorists will be released from prison, to their families in Palestinian Authority villages in Judea and Samaria. While these won’t be the most notorious of terrorists, they are dangerous terrorists with intent to kill, and are likely to have been further radicalized in prison. It’s expected that the newly freed terrorists will work to radicalize and rally locals around them to carry out attacks, causing a sharp increase in terrorism.

Yemen:

Houthi leader, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, stated in a speech today that his terror group will continue its “military operations” as long as Israel’s attacks on Gaza continue, up until the ceasefire takes effect on Sunday. He added that they will be in contact with Hamas and Islamic Jihad during the ceasefire agreement and “will provide support to Gaza” in the event of IDF attacks.

Syria:

The new Syrian ruler, Ahmed al-Shara al-Julani, addressed Israel in a press conference he held with the Prime Minister of Qatar. He expressed that the new Syria has no intent for war with any country, and won’t support Iranian militia. He said that since “the Israeli excuse for remaining in Syria was the presence of Iranian militias” and since there are no more Iranian militia in Syria, Israel should leave Syria.

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Discussion

We appreciate your feedback. If you have any additional information to contribute to this article, it will be added below.

  1. What if they do a hostage deal for all the hostages and in return give them terrorists who will blow up in a few days from something attached to their body?

  2. TEHILLIM.
    (they can also kill some of the terrorists serving life sentences in exchange for hostages who arent alive.)

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