War Day 414: IDF Encircles Southwest Lebanon, ICC Reactions

War Summary, Day 414: Hostage deal back on the table, Heavy airstrikes in Beirut, Jihad Council member targeted, IDF completes encirclement of southwestern Lebanon, Troops may have reached the east banks of Litany River, possible ceasefire in Lebanon, sirens in areas that almost never have, and Katz puts halt to administrative detentions.

By Mrs. Bruria Efune

101 held captive in Gaza.
36 hostages confirmed murdered held in Gaza.
117 living hostages rescued.
37 hostage bodies rescued.
1,770 Israelis killed.
382 fallen soldiers and police in the battle in Gaza.
82 fallen soldiers in Northern Israel.
14 fallen soldiers and police in Judea & Samaria.
30,650 estimated projectiles fired at Israel.
88,000 Israelis displaced from their homes.
1 Jewish nation united in prayer, charity, and good deeds.

Top Headlines:

• Hostage deal back on the table
• Heavy airstrikes in Dahiya, Beirut
• Jihad Council member targeted in Beirut
• IDF completes encirclement of southwestern Lebanon
• Troops may have reached the east banks of Litany River
• Possible ceasefire in Lebanon
• ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant
• Sirens in areas that almost never have
• Katz puts halt to administrative detentions

Hostages:

Hamas released a video in which they claim that a female hostage was killed in Northern Gaza, due to IDF presence, and that the life of a second female hostage is now under threat. They released a blurred picture of a body, which they claimed was the hostage. The IDF says it cannot confirm or deny Hamas’s claims, and refers to Hamas videos as psychological warfare.

For the first time many months (perhaps in a year), Israeli defense officials thing that there may be a chance of a hostage deal. Hamas still refuses to surrender, but is now open to a deal that does not include a complete end to the war in Gaza. The deal in talks includes a 42-day truce, during which hostages will be released in exchange for several Hamas demands. Further details have not been published.

Axios reports that U.S. President-Elect Trump says he will be the new “Negotiator-in-Chief” to bring the hostages home.

Gaza:

The IDF announced the name of one hero who fell in battle in Gaza:
Staff Sgt. Ron Epshtein, 19, from Nesher

Hamas fired one rocket towards the Kerem Shalom Crossing, through which humanitarian aid is brought into Gaza. It was intercepted by the Iron Dome. Later, rockets were also fired at the border communities of Ein Hashlosha and Kissufim. No injuries were reported.

The remaining Hamas terrorists in Jabaliya are mostly fighting by hiding explosives throughout the terrain and many buildings. Jabaliya is a dense urban center with many tall buildings, and Hamas are taking advantage of their own intimate familiarity with the city, compared to that of the Israeli troops. In turn, the IDF uses drones to track and eliminate terrorists as they plant bombs, and search through trapped buildings. So far, IDF combat engineers have neutralized over 300 booby-trapped buildings. Troops have also eliminated many terrorists in close-quarters combat.

The Shin Bet and IDF are continuing to find and eliminate every Hamas terrorist who took part in the October 7th attack. On Friday, 5 such terrorists were eliminated, including the two commanders who led the horrific massacre and kidnapping in the Mefalsim area. In addition, a senior PIJ commander was eliminated. The commander had been responsible for rocket fire during the October 7th attack, and was eliminated with a precision strike while hiding in the designated humanitarian zone.

Lebanon:

The IDF announced the name of one hero who fell in battle in Lebanon:
Sgt. Gur Kehati, 20, from Nir Banim

The last three days have seen around 80 Hezbollah rockets launched at Israel daily, all north of (including) Haifa. The rockets are now being launched from areas on Southern Lebanon which are further than 5 kilometers of the border, and some are even being launched from the northeastern Hezbollah stronghold of Baalbek—an area which the IDF has no intentions to reach on ground.

Most rockets which are headed to civilians areas are intercepted by the Iron Dome, but around 3% make it through.

On Thursday, Brian Direktor, 27, was killed by a rocket impact in Nahariya.

The IDF doesn’t give away much information about troops advancements in Lebanon. According to public information found in Lebanese media and satellite images, and the little information given by the IDF, troops have reached the strategic Al Bayyada Hill, completing the encirclement of Hezbollah’s southwestern sector. This entraps a significant area controlled by Hezbollah.

The IDF reported that troops are also moving inwards in the southeastern sector. Arab media outlets report that the IDF has reached the eastern banks of the Litany River. The eastern part of the river is much closer to Israel than the western part.

The last two days saw very heavy IDF airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon—including the city of Tyre, and in the Dahiye district of Beirut. All airstrikes in civilian areas came with evacuation notices ahead of time. The IDF appears to be targeting as many Hezbollah command centers in Beirut as possible before a possible ceasefire agreement. Dahiye is beginning to look like parts of Gaza.

An exception to the rule was a hidden airstrike in Central Beirut, which appears to have been targeting Muhammad Haydar. Haydar is one of the three remaining members of Hezbollah’s 9-member Jihad Council. There are reports that Haydar escaped the airstrike. 11 people were killed in the airstrike, most or all of which appear to be Hezbollah members.

Syrian media reports an alleged IDF airstrike in the Jusiyah Crossing in the Homs Governorate, which is a Syrian border crossing close to Lebanon’s Baalbek District, and Hezbollah’s weapons stronghold. The reports indicate that 40 were killed in the attack, including IRGC forces. This would make it the deadliest alleged IDF airstrike in Syria in at least a decade.

There are also reports that the airstrike eliminated Ali Mussa Daqduq, a Senior Hezbollah terrorist who is linked to a 2007 attack in Iraq which killed five American Soldiers.

It has been clarified that the situation in which Zeev Erlich, 71, was killed, was not simply an archeological tour. The commander who brought him in, recruited him to help map out the ancient fortress, so that they could figure out if there were more hidden areas in which Hezbollah terrorists could be hiding. This is not the first time the IDF brought him to help, but this time it hadn’t been done with the correct permits, and he wasn’t officially on reserve duty. Erlich, who is an archeologist and geographical expert, had also assisted in locating the three boys who had been kidnapped in 2014, and who’s bodies were found hidden in an ancient cave.

Lebanon Ceasefire:

Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi met with U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein to discuss the potential ceasefire. While some details still need to be worked out, Israel and Lebanon seem headed towards a yes. The question is if Hezbollah will go with it, and that choice will ultimately be made by Iran’s Ali Khameini. Khameini wants Hezbollah to have time to rearm, and doesn’t like the conditions which make that difficult.

1. A truce of 60 days, during which Hezbollah will move north of the Litany River, and the IDF will withdraw from Lebanon. Israel will not hold a security zone along Lebanon’s border.
2. Lebanese civilians will be able to return to their damaged villages in southern Lebanon.
3. The Lebanese Army will retake responsibility for southern Lebanon, and will be responsible for preventing Hezbollah from re-establishing itself in the area.
4. UNIFIL may still have presence in southern Lebanon, though Israel does not see them as a reliable force for removing Hezbollah.
5. A new international force may be put in place to do what UNIFIL was supposed to. This force might include the UK, France, and Germany. Lebanon opposes the UK’s presence, and Israel opposes France’s, due to their recent anti-Israel actions.
6. A new US-led oversight committee would monitor truce violations, though without a local military presence.
7. if Israel sees Hezbollah attempting to rebuild infrastructure in southern Lebanon, it will notify the Lebanese Army via the US to act against the terror group.
8. If no action is taken by the Lebanese Army, Israel reserves the right to act.
9. The IDF will also maintain the right to act to thwart any immediate threat, such as identifying Hezbollah terrorists preparing to carry out an attack, or a weapons shipment headed to the terror group.
10. Systems will also be put into place to (attempt to) prevent weapons from being smuggled to Hezbollah via Syria. This may include Russia involvement and understandings with Syria’s Assad.

This ceasefire is not designed as a peace plan or long-term solution. Instead it is designed for quiet in the immediate, so that Israel is able to place heavier focus on Gaza and the Iranian nuclear threat.

If the ceasefire goes through now, the main accomplishments of the war in Lebanon will be:

1. Hezbollah no longer ties themselves to Hamas. Earlier they swore they’d only stop once there was a ceasefire in Gaza. Now even Iran is telling them to cut the equation.
2. There is no longer an immediate threat of a Hezbollah invasion into Israel. Hezbollah has been fully cleared from the front line of villages along the border, and much of the second line as well.
3. Due to being removed from the front line, Hezbollah is no longer able to fire guided anti-tank missiles into Israeli border towns. These were the most deadly threat to Israel, after the threat of an invasion.
4. Almost the entirety of Hezbollah’s top leadership has been wiped out, which will take time for Hezbollah to replace.
5. 80% of Hezbollah’s weaponry has been destroyed—although this still leaves them with more than they started with during the 2006 war.
6. Hezbollah is no longer (for the time being) able to act as a significant threat to Israel’s defense systems during an Iranian nuclear attack.
7. Severe damage to Hezbollah’s financial system, though unclear to what extent.

ICC:

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has made an unprecedented and controversial decision to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, marking the first time the court has targeted leaders of a democratic nation. Several key points highlight the problematic nature of this decision:

1) Jurisdictional Issues:

Israel is not a party to the ICC’s Rome Statute (not to be confused with the ICJ, which is a UN organ, based in The Hague).

Israel was not given adequate opportunity to investigate allegations internally before the warrants were issued.

2) Questionable Motivations:

The ICC prosecutor, Karim Khan, faces serious sexual harassment allegations.

Khan’s is a religious Ahmadiyya Muslim who focuses on missionary work to spread Islam and considers the Qur’an the ultimate and unalterable word of God. Under his belief system, any country once conquered by Muslims, especially Israel, must be returned to Muslim rule at all costs.

The ICC has not issued any warrants for any real tyrants, such as Bashar al-Assad of Syria who used chemical weapons against Syrians, Xi Jinping of China for the Uyghur genocide, Erdogan of Turkey who recently cut off water to millions of Kurdish civilians after killing thousands of them, or Vladimir Putin of Russia for his war crimes in Ukraine.

3) Israel’s Defense:

Israel maintains it has taken significant steps to minimize civilian casualties in Gaza, unseen in any other war in history.

The IDF points to the relatively low civilian-to-combatant casualty ratio, which is less than 1:1, also unseen in any other urban war in history.

Hamas uses human shields and civilian infrastructure. By prosecuting Israel for combat under these circumstances, the ICC is giving a free card to any terrorists using these methods, and making it impossible for the entire free world to fight terrorism.

Israel has consistently worked to expand humanitarian aid despite Hamas’s interference, even feeding its own enemy.

4) Political Impact:

While Israel and the US reject ICC jurisdiction, the warrants affect travel for Prime Minister Netanyahu and Former Defense Minister Gallant to 120+ ICC member countries.

Several European nations and the EU, as well as Canada, have indicated they would enforce the warrants.

Other countries, such as Hungary and Argentina, have come out against the decision, saying that the ICC has destroyed any credibility it once held.

Israeli leadership has strongly condemned the decision as antisemitic and likened it to a “modern Dreyfus trial.” President Herzog called it “a dark day for justice [and] humanity,” arguing that the ICC has “chosen the side of terror and evil over democracy and freedom.”

U.S. President Biden has expressed opposition to the warrants and support for Israel’s right to self-defense, with some U.S. senators threatening sanctions against the ICC.

President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly making plans for punitive actions against the ICC for the arrest warrants, including personal sanctions against Karim Khan. Trump’s nominee for national security adviser Mike Waltz tweeted, “You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC and UN come January.”

While the ICC gives five days for Israel to appeal, Israel will likely reject the ICC’s authority, and instead let the ICC suffer the natural consequences of making such a morally twisted decision.

Other:

Sirens are sounding near the Dead Sea and some areas in Judea and Samaria following a ballistic missile launched from Yemen at Israel. The missile was intercepted before entering Israeli airspace.

Sirens sounded in the Mitzpeh Ramon area (deep in the Negev desert) due to a drone launched by Iranian-backed militia in Iraq. The drone crashed into an empty area.

New Defense Minister Israel Katz announced an end to administrative detention orders for Israeli citizens in Judea and Samaria. Administrative detention is a system in which the IDF or Shin Bet can arrest someone in areas under IDF control (such as Judea and Samaria) based solely on suspicions, and without due process. Katz instructed the Shin Bet that from now on, to arrest an Israeli citizen, they must go through the legal system and have a charge. At the same time, Katz called on leaders in Judea and Samaria to condemn all violence and encourage only lawful defense measures against terrorism.

United States CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla met with IDF Chief off Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi over the weekend for an assessment focused on “security-strategic issues with an emphasis on Lebanon.”

This update is sponsored to thank Bruria Efune for keeping us updated in a clear and simple way. May we merit to have more good news. From the Gurkow and Lezell families.