War Day 352: Heavy Airstrikes and Assasinations in Lebanon

War Summary, Day 352: Netanyahu estimates that half the hostages are still alive, speculation as to whether Sinwar was eliminated, Netanyahu considering the “General’s Plan” and other methods, multiple homes hit in Hezbollah fire, schools remain closed in Northern Israel, IDF prepares for next phases of war, reservists deployed to the north, Iraqi militia joins in to support Hezbollah, and IDF strikes heavily in Lebanon.

By Mrs. Bruria Efune

101 held captive in Gaza.
35 hostages confirmed murdered held in Gaza.
117 living hostages rescued.
37 hostage bodies rescued.
1,652 Israelis killed.
350 fallen soldiers and police in the battle in Gaza.
25 fallen soldiers in Northern Israel.
14 fallen soldiers and police in Judea & Samaria.
24,700 estimated rockets fired at Israel.
88,000 Israelis displaced from their homes.
1 Jewish nation united in prayer, charity, and good deeds.

Top Headlines:

• White House says Sinwar isn’t negotiating in good faith
• Netanyahu estimates that half the hostages are still alive
• Speculation as to whether Sinwar was eliminated
• Netanyahu considering the “General’s Plan” and other methods
• Multiple homes hit in Hezbollah fire
• Teen killed in car crash during siren
• Schools remain closed in Northern Israel
• IDF prepares for next phases of war
• Reservists deployed to the north
• Hezbollah at crossroads
• Iraqi militia joins in to support Hezbollah.
• Iran wondering if Raisi’s helicopter crash was due to a pager explosion

Hostage Updates:

White House National Security spokesman John Kirby, noting the stalled negotiations, said: “It doesn’t appear that Mr. Sinwar is prepared at all to keep negotiating in good faith, especially after he murdered six hostages in a tunnel, execution style. It doesn’t appear as if he’s willing to move this forward.”

During a Foreign Affairs and Security Council meeting, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that about half of the the hostages in Gaza are still alive. He also said that Israel has gone a long way offering huge concessions to Hamas for a deal, but “Hamas asked to make 26 changes to the [last] deal, we didn’t ask for anything.”

Gaza Front Updates:

Hamas did not fire any rockets into Israel today.

Thank G-d, the IDF did not announce any fallen heroes.

Three divisions of IDF troops are currently operating in Gaza: the 252nd Division along the Netzarim Corridor, and pinpoint operations in Central Gaza and Gaza City; the 162nd Division in Rafah and along the Philadelphi Corridor; and the Gaza Division in the buffer zone.

The IDF has been carrying out dozens of airstrikes against Hamas targets throughout Gaza, aiming at many Hamas gathering sites, but hasn’t published details on most of them. One airstrike yesterday, the IDF confirmed that it targets a group of Hamas terrorists who were operating out of the Qafr Qasim School in the Shati Camp of Gaza City, which is also being used as a shelter for civilians. The IDF used a precision strike, at took measures to mitigate harm to civilians.

Amidst rumors that Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, may have been eliminated, the IDF says that they cannot deny or confirm reports. Suspicions that he may have been eliminated in a recent airstrike arose after no communication came from the arch-terrorist for several days. However, it’s very possible that Sinwar is still in his hiding spot deep underground with Israeli hostages, and is simply cut off from communication—either out of choice and fear, or due to his messengers being injured or eliminated. There are no reports of any recent operation that specifically targeted Sinwar.

The rumors may also be a strategic tactic of the IDF intelligence. The possibility that Sinwar is dead can cause mass pandemonium in Gaza, and may force Sinwar to send proof of life, which could then help the IDF get to him.

During the Foreign Affairs and Security Committee meeting today, Netanyahu also addressed the petitions for the “General’s Plan,” which calls for a complete civilian evacuation and then siege and clearance of Hamas from Northern Gaza, followed by a repeat in other parts of Gaza. Netanyahu said that the plan makes sense, and “it is one of the programs being considered, but there are several others.”

According to Netanyahu, an important key to dismantling Hamas, is taking control of the humanitarian aid from the terror group. He mentioned that attempts to have the clans in Gaza distribute the aid didn’t work, and now a different solution needs to be found. Netanyahu said he prefers something other than an IDF military regime in Gaza, but didn’t rule it out, though he opposes civilian annexation, “but of course we will continue to hold the perimeter militarily and anywhere that protects us.”

Gaza Humanitarian Efforts Updates:

In addition to the regular entry of an average of 180 humanitarian aid trucks daily, the IDF just facilitated the establishment of the 13th field hospital in Gaza. The new hospital is run by Doctors Without Borders, and is located in Dier al-Balah, Central Gaza. It is expected to expand from a capacity of 20 beds to a capacity of 110 beds, and will include an emergency room, a maternity ward, and a surgical ward.

Northern Front Updates:

Hezbollah fired over 200 rockets, cruise missiles, and drones at Northern Israel today, most of which were intercepted by the Iron Dome, unless headed to an empty area.

The largest barrage came in the early morning hours, when around 85 rockets were fired at the general area between Haifa and Nazareth. Impacts were made in Kiryat Bialik and Moreshet. A man in his 70s was moderately wounded, and another man in his 70s and 16-year-old girl were lightly injured. A woman whose home took a direct hit, and was completely destroyed, told news reporters that it was a miracle she was in her bomb shelter, where she waited until rescuers dug her out. A barn in Jezebel Valley was also damaged, and several cows were hit.

A 17-year-old boy was killed by the siren. He was driving when the siren went off, which led him to panic and crash his car.

Hezbollah claims that they targeted the Rafael defense firm facilities near Haifa, however no missiles hit the area, and at best landed 15 kilometers away, targeting civilians. Hezbollah says that the large morning attack was in response to Israel’s pager explosions last week.

IDF Home Front Command instructions expanded to limit gatherings in Northern Israel to a maximum of 10 people outdoors, and 100 indoors—if shelter is accessible. Schools are closed in Northern Israel, workplaces can only open if bomb shelters are accessible. (Many of the areas now being hit by Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies were never targeted before, making bomb shelters less common, especially in the neighborhoods built before 1992.)

Rambam Hospital in Haifa moved their wards underground, where they can accommodate 2,000 beds in a parking lot transformed into a bunker hospital. It’s now the world’s largest underground hospital.

The IDF has been striking Hezbollah with significant strength—using over 150 fighter jets in recent days. An estimated 100 targets were hit in Lebanon today. Aside from air power, additional ground forces are being mobilized, with the 7th Armored Brigade most recently mobilized to the front.

The IDF is taking steps to cripple Hezbollah: First reducing Hezbollah’s arsenal as much as possible, with a large number of airstrikes targeting arms depots and launchers, while also using airstrikes to push Hezbollah’s ground forces back from the border. Air strikes deeper into Lebanon are also targeting Hezbollah’s air defenses, to give the IAF more freedom of movement for intense attacks on protected Hezbollah sites which may come in the future.

Troops are fully trained and prepared for a ground invasion of Lebanon, with the goal of pushing Hezbollah back past the Litany River, and creating a buffer zone of 1-5 kilometers along the Lebanon-Israel border, so that Hezbollah can no longer fire short-range projectiles on border communities. The border area is very mountainous, and full of rough terrain and hidden Hezbollah tunnels. The IAF can be expected to make intense preparations before any ground invasion begins, to reduce risk to our soldiers. This will also include airstrikes on civilian homes, where Hezbollah terrorists hide, so evacuation notices can be expected first.

The IDF is clearly following a well planned step-by-step process. After Faud Shakur was eliminated in July, Hezbollah bought hundreds more pagers. Then the IDF exploded the pagers at the opportune moment—choosing specifically who to target on an individual basis. The IDF aimed for crippling injuries over full “martyrdom” for the terrorists, to maximize the morale crush. Without pagers to communicate, Hezbollah leaders were now forced to meet in person to plan revenge—which is how the IDF got Ibrahim Aqil and the other senior commanders.

Unlike with Hamas in Gaza, which Israel had long underestimated, the IDF has been preparing for a Third Lebanon War for years, and has far more intelligence on Hezbollah, and likely many more tricks up its sleeve.

Mideast expert, Amatzia Baram, says that Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, does not want a full-scale war with Israel now, especially after losing much of his top military leadership, and the humiliating pager explosions. However, Nasrallah is being pressured from below to take revenge, and is also forced to continue with the regular rocket fire, due to his promise that it will continue until a ceasefire in Gaza—which isn’t coming.

The Alma Research Center concludes that the September 20 (Friday) meeting, in which Ibrahim Aqil was eliminated, was to discuss the possibility of executing a long-planned October 7th-like ground infiltration by the elite Radwan forces into Northern Israel, as revenge for the pager attack and/or Shakur’s elimination. After the significant elimination of most of the chain of command of Radwan, Alma estimates that they are no longer capable of a large infiltration, but may attempt a small surprise infiltration anywhere along the long and bumpy border, with just one of the six Radwan units, and led by a junior commander.

Even after heavy IDF airstrikes, Hezbollah still has significant arsenal. They were estimated to have up to 200,000 rockets and missiles at the start of the war. The IDF has been targeting above-ground facilities, but the terror group has many deep underground tunnels and storages, some within mountains that airstrikes won’t reach. Hezbollah has not yet used a fraction of its capabilities, likely out of a fear of escalating further. They still have not used any guided missiles, or any of the longer range rockets. They have plenty underground multi-launch rocket systems (MLRS), with capacity to fire over 36 rockets at a time.

The coming days can go in two ways: Either Hezbollah will decide to take revenge, and carry out a heavy attack, forcing a rapid escalation, or, they will continue firing at the same rate as over the last year, and the IDF will continue with the step-by-step plan, gradually raising pressure, and finally, entering on ground to create a buffer zone. In this scenario, Hezbollah will also gradually escalate, until they can no longer fire at all anymore. A third, very unlikely scenario, is that Hezbollah swallows their pride and withdraws on their own, coming to a diplomatic agreement.

Former Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, pointed out on X (Twitter) “Hezbollah=Lebanon. Hezbollah controls the Lebanese government, and cannot survive without popular support. Hezbollah is not a rogue organization isolated from Lebanon, just as, say, the Nazis were not divorced from Germany in WW2. Nazis WERE Germany, and Hezbollah IS Lebanon. Therefore Israel and the world must view this as an Israel-Lebanon war, with all the devastating consequences that follow.”

Other Iranian Proxies Updates:

In addition to attacks from Hezbollah, the north also came under attack by the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which this evening, launched a drone at the Beit Shean Valley, triggering sirens in many communities. The drone, which travelled over Syria, was intercepted without injuries.

The Iraqi terror group also launched a drone at Be’er Ori, near Eilat, this morning. It was intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace.

Expect to hear more from this group.

Judea and Samaria Updates:

The IDF entered Al Jazeera’s Ramallah office, and, during a live broadcast, ordered the Qatari news agency’s office to close for 45 days, under charges of promoting terrorism.

Iran Updates:

Bahshaish Ardestani, a member of the Security Committee of the Iranian Shura Council, was quoted saying that “the explosion of the pager devices was one of the scenarios for the possible killing of Ibrahim Raisi.”

He was referring to the former Iranian president Raisi, who was killed last May during a helicopter crash in Azerbaijan, at the time blamed on foggy weather over dangerous terrain. Now, the Iranian Shura Council is wondering if Raisi was really killed by the Mossad exploding his pager. The Mossad will likely leave them to keep wondering, and enjoy the paranoia.

International Updates:

Netanyahu was planning on addressing the UN General Assembly this weekend. It is now unknown if he’ll be able to attend, due to the war in Lebanon. The Prime Minister’s Office is looking at other possibilities, such as having Netanyahu’s close confidant, Minister Ron Dermer, speak in his place.

Correction:
Yesterday I accidentally wrote that the U.S. bounty for Ibrahim Aqil was $7 billion. It was $7 million.

***

Morning Lebanon Update:

The IDF already conducted well over 300 airstrikes since this morning, taking out significant Hezbollah infrastructure, including rocket launchers, arsenal storage, and Hezbollah meeting sites. The IDF clearly has very high level intelligence on Hezbollah’s infrastructure, and is crushing the terror group.

There are reports of high-level assassinations, including Sheikh Ali Aburia and Muhammad Saleh.

The IDF issued urgent evacuation warnings to anyone in Lebanon within 1 kilometer of Hezbollah infrastructure, including in residential homes. All of Beqaa Valley, which is known to be full of Hezbollah warehouses has been told to evacuate, quick.

Hezbollah fired large salvos of rockets, and some drones, at northern Israel, including Tzfat and areas near the Kineret. One man was lightly injured.

Home Front Command restrictions remain limited to Northern Israel, though all Israelis are asked to remain vigilant, listen for updates, and follow them closely.

Expect things to get even more intense soon.