War Day 388: IDF Enters Jabaliya, Tunnel Explosion Triggers Earthquake Alert

War Summary, Day 388: IDF moved into Jabaliya quickly, civilians begin to evacuate, Al Jazeera journalists identified as terrorists, 5 main strategies to cripple Hezbollah, first line of villages along the Lebanon border are cleared, 400 tons of explosives destroy Hezbollah tunnel triggering earthquake alerts, and next attack on Iran likely after US elections.

By Mrs. Bruria Efune

101 held captive in Gaza.
36 hostages confirmed murdered held in Gaza.
117 living hostages rescued.
37 hostage bodies rescued.
1,722 Israelis killed.
363 fallen soldiers and police in the battle in Gaza.
68 fallen soldiers in Northern Israel.
14 fallen soldiers and police in Judea & Samaria.
29,000 estimated projectiles fired at Israel.
88,000 Israelis displaced from their homes.
1 Jewish nation united in prayer, charity, and good deeds.

The last six days bring a mix of positive advancements, and incredibly sad losses of many soldiers. In the last week, 56 children of heroes have been orphaned.

Below is a brief summary of the current situation on the ground.

Hostages:

Israel sent a negotiating team to Doha, Qatar, for the first time in two months. In these negotiations, Hamas is demanding a complete IDF ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza, in exchange for the release of all hostages. This is unlikely to be accepted by Israel, which needs to maintain a level of control in Gaza, particularly along the Philadelphi Corridor, in order to prevent Hamas from regaining strength.

Meanwhile, Egypt proposed a 2-day ceasefire, during which Hamas would release 4 hostages, followed by 10 days of negotiations leading towards a lasting ceasefire. Reports indicate that Hamas will not accept this.

Gaza:

Hamas has been firing 1-2 short-range rockets per week on average, at border communities. These rockets are easier to launch and need less setup and know-how than longer-range rockets. Hamas didn’t even manage to launch any long-range rockets in response to Sinwar’s elimination.

The IDF announced the names of four heroes who fell in battle in Northern Gaza:

Cpt. Barak Israel Sagan, 22, from Petah Tikva

Sgt. Ido Ben Zvi, 21, from Shomrat

Sgt. Hillel Ovadia, 22, from Jerusalem

Sgt. Maj. (res.) Shaul Moyal, 47, from Karnei Shomron

Northern Gaza was the Hamas stronghold and home to Hamas’s biggest supporters. The majority of rockets are launched from this area, and many more are likely stored here. In Northern Gaza, Hamas’s main command center is in Jabaliya, embedded between thousands of civilians.

Even though it has been under evacuation orders for a year now, most residents stayed put, some in order to protect Hamas, and the others, because Hamas blocked their exit. In order to completely clear Hamas out of Northern Gaza, and clean out their weapons, the IDF needs to get all the civillians out.

After surrounding the city three weeks ago, the IDF moved into Jabaliya very quickly. Very few civilians left after the initial orders. IDF troops operated cautiously on the ground, to locate and eliminate Hamas remnants. After IDF troops broke Hamas’s siege preventing evacuation, civilians began to leave the city en masse. (The news of Sinwar’s death also helped encourage civilians to give up and leave.)

So far, 50,000 civilians have evacuated Jabaliya, over 600 terrorists have been detained, and hundreds were killed. The IDF uses intelligence to identify and detain terrorists who attempt to flee with civilians. 

The most intense operation, which was completed today, was the raid against Kamal Adwan Hospital, where dozens of top terrorists hid amongst patients. While ensuring the safe evacuation of patients, and continued function of emergency medical facilities, the IDF detained 40 terrorists in the hospital and eliminated 20 in gunfights. Hamas had been using ambulances to move from place to place.

Hundreds of terrorists still remain in Jabaliya, and the operation will likely continue for several more weeks. With Hamas down to an estimated 4-6,000 fighters, this is a significant battle, taking out at least a quarter of their remaining terrorist force.

The IDF is also continuing with targeted airstrikes, including one this week on a Hamas command center in the “Martyrs School” in Nuseirat, Central Gaza.

The IDF found documents in Gaza Strip that identified six Al Jazeera journalists as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists of various ranks.

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari announced that the Hamas Nukhba Force commander who led the killing and kidnapping of Israelis from a roadside bomb shelter near Kibbutz Re’im on October 7, was killed in an airstrike in the Gaza Strip yesterday. The terrorist turned out to be a registered UNRWA employee. Not surprisingly, the UN Secretary General, António Guterres, mourned the death of the UNRWA employee.

Lebanon:

With the exception of Shabbat, Hezbollah fire has been on a gradual decline, from 200 daily, to around 100. On Shabbat, after Israel attacked Iran, Hezbollah launched nearly 200. The Tel Aviv area had sirens twice over the last week. Most rockets are aimed at border communities and the Upper Galilee (such as Safed) many also target the Haifa area.

Most rockets and drones are intercepted, but some hits were made. Several Israelites were light-moderately wounded. 4 were severely wounded. Two were killed in the Arab Israeli town of Majd al-Krum.

Notably, Hezbollah is no longer firing the deadly anti-tank missiles at the border communities, since they’ve been pushed back too far for such short-range fire.

The IDF announced the names of 15 heroes who fell in battle in Southern Lebanon:

Warrant Officer (res.) Mordechai Haim Amoyal, 42, from Lod

Sgt. Maj. (res.) Shmuel Harari, 35, from Safed

Master Sgt. (res.) Shlomo Aviad Nayman, 31, from Mitzpe Yeriho

Sgt. First Class (res.) Shuvael Ben-Natan, 22, from Rehalim

Sgt. First Class Gai Ben-Haroosh, 23, from Pardes Hanna-Karkur

Maj. (res.) Dan Maori, 43, from Beit Yitzhak-Sha’ar Hefer

Cpt. (res.) Alon Safrai, 28, from Jerusalem

Warrant Officer (res.) Omri Lotan, 47, from Bat Hefer

Warrant Officer (res.) Guy Idan, 51, from Shomrat

Master Sgt. (res.) Tom Segal, 28, from Ein HaBesor

Cpt. (res.) Rabbi Avraham Yosef Goldberg, 43, from Jerusalem

Master Sgt. (res.) Gilad Elmaliach, 30, from Jerusalem

Cpt. (res.) Amit Chayut, 29, from Haifa

Maj. (res.) Eliav Amram Abitbol, 36, from Eitan

Sgt. Maj. (res.) Shaul Moyal, 47, from Karnei Shomron

The IDF is hitting Hezbollah with 5 main strategies:

1. Targeted strikes to take out Hezbollah leadership, and their succession line.

Several commanders were eliminated this week. The lack of leadership cripples Hezbollah’s decision-making capabilities.

2. Hitting Hezbollah’s financial system.

Hezbollah had its own finance system, as the economy in Lebanon is a disaster (also because of Hezbollah). Israel bombed most of their banks. It’s unknown if or how Hezbollah is able to pay their fighters now. This was a serious blow to morale, and may be cause for the report of many terrorists leaving their posts, and even fleeing to Syria.

3. Preventing weapons imports.

These come via the seaport of Beirut, the airport, and primarily across the border with Syria. The IDF is retaining control of the seaport and airport from a distance, with a clear threat to destroy any vessel carrying supplies for Hezbollah. The IAF has also bombed most smuggling routes, making it nearly impossible to drive through from Syria. Connected locations in Syria are also being bombed.

4. Destroying Hezbollah’s weapons supply and manufacturing abilities.

After a brief break, the IDF is back to bombing Hezbollah warehouses in Beirut, in addition to Bekaa Valley and Tyre. Almost every night, the IDF issues evacuation warnings for 3-10 specific buildings and their surroundings, before bombing them from above.

Hezbollah now has about 25,000 short-range rockets and about 2,000 medium-range rockets remaining (according to estimates from the Alma Institute).

5. Cleaning out Hezbollah’s front line in Southern Lebanon.

This has been the most painful task for Israel, as it requires sending troops on the ground, to search for and locate Hezbollah bases. However, until a month ago, the expectation was that we would lose dozens of soldiers daily, G-d forbid, since Hezbollah has advanced equipment and a huge advantage on rough terrain. Thank G-d, as hard as it is to remember, things are going wildly better than expected.

Troops have almost completed clearing out the first line of villages along the border, which posed the biggest threat to Israel. These villages were packed with Hezbollah bases, rocket launchers, and terror tunnels. Discoveries pointed to a massive, and extremely well-equipped, invasion planned by Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces. Such an invasion would have been a disaster many times worse than Hamas’s October 7th.

While most Hezbollah positions are destroyed, IDF soldiers also bring some equipment back to Israel, including around 3,200 explosive devices and 2,500 anti-tank missiles and RPGs.

Early Shabbat morning, the IDF destroyed the largest Hezbollah tunnel found to date, which stretched 2km long, and reached depths of 40m in some areas. The tunnel was a gathering site for hundreds of terrorists and was primed to be a key launch site of the planned invasion into northern Israel.

The IDF used 400 tons of explosives to destroy the tunnel, in a blast so big that it triggered earthquake alerts in much of northern Israel.

Once Hezbollah’s front line is fully cleared out, the IDF will need to decide if it will continue through all areas up until the Litany River, or begin moving to a diplomatic solution. The IDF has made it clear that an agreement will include the IDF’s continued action against any Hezbollah efforts to rebuild.

Hezbollah is severely weakened, but it is not yet gone. They aren’t able to carry out the planned invasion, and aren’t close enough to launch anti-tank missiles. They weren’t able to overwhelm the Air Force and prevent Israel from attacking Iran. But, they’re still launching rockets, and even the occasional ballistic missile. Given time to regroup, they could launch heavy attacks again.

Iran:

Israel’s attack on Iran appears to have been a “shaping campaign,” which prepares grounds for further action. Iran is now left unable to defend their skies, and unable to develop new missiles for at least 2-3 years. Worse for Iran, the attack left them humiliated, and feeling forced to respond and fall deeper into Israel’s trap.

(Bonus for Ukraine: Iran can no longer send missiles to Russia. Russia can’t either afford to send new air defenses to Iran.)

Iran has an estimated 2,000 ballistic missiles in store, and will now need to use some to attack Israel. Their problem is that the IAF is much more free to operate in Iranian skies, after having destroyed their air defenses. In the initial attack, the IAF had the U.S. Air Force on standby for emergency assistance, in case Iran managed to hit Israeli jets. But Israel doesn’t need that anymore, and could now attack with far less planning.

In addition, elections will soon be over in the US, and Israel will be much more free to act without pressure from the Biden administration, especially if Kamala is out.

Iran will have to plan their attack cautiously, preventing any leaks, so that Israel doesn’t destroy their setup before launch. This means their attack might come with far less warning. (Though some expect it to be on Shabbat morning.)

Israel will likely respond after November 5th, and this time, it could be much more impactful.

Or, Iran could choose not to respond at all, and instead be seen in the Middle East as “weak.” They would then take the time to rebuild, and Israel would still have to destroy their capabilities before they get a nuclear weapon.

For Israelis: for now there is no change to Home Front Command instructions, except some easing of restrictions in the north. We’re now in the gentle balance of being alert and ready, but not stressed or panicked. G-d willing, everything will be good!

Other:

A Hamas operative planning an “imminent” terror attack was killed by special forces in the West Bank city of Tulkarem.

Yesterday a terrorist rammed his truck into a bus stope. One person was killed, 24 were injured, including 5 seriously. Most of the victims were pensioners who had disembarked from a coach at the bus stop ahead of a visit to a nearby museum.

The terrorist was eliminated.

Also yesterday, a terrorist who tried to carry out a ramming and stabbing attack against IDF troops in Judea and Samaria was eliminated before he could o any harm.

Militia in Iraq continue to fire between 2-3 attack drones daily, mostly at Northern Israel or towards Eilat (where they’re usually intercepted long before reaching Israeli airspace or land).

The first capability of Israel’s new “Iron Beam” high-powered laser interception system, is expected to be operational within a year. In the initial phase, it will assist the Iron Dome with smaller projectiles, such as short-range rockets and mortars.