Ceasefire & Hostage Deal Update:

At 1:30 am, Friday in Israel, a ceasefire went into effect, following Israeli government approval.

Israel’s government cabinet approved the first phase of U.S. President Trump’s ceasefire agreement. The second phase will need to be voted on separately, after the first phase, possibly in even smaller stages.

Here’s what happens next:

Part 1

Within 24 hours, Israel will withdraw the IDF from parts of Gaza, to lines in an agreed upon map. Israel will retain control of 58% of Gaza (this was reduced from 68% in negotiations). Israel retains all areas around the border, including the strategic highlands in northern Gaza that look down on Israeli border communities. Hamas will retain most of Gaza City, with its most vital centers, and many remaining tunnels.

The agreement states that Israel will not return to areas withdrawn from—unless Hamas fails to fully implement the agreement.

During this time, massive amounts of humanitarian aid, including fuel, will begin transfer into Gaza. (It’s not clear what the difference is here, to what’s been going on for the past few months.)

It appears that Abu Shabab’s Hamas-free zone will remain in east Rafah, under IDF control. It’s possible that other anti-Hamas militia will remain in parts of Shejaya (Gaza City) and Khan Younis, also under IDF control.

Part 2

After the IDF withdraws, Hamas will have 72 hours to release all hostages, including 20 who are alive, and the bodies of 28 who aren’t. There will be no Hamas ceremonies.

During this time, the IDF will halt aerial surveillance over areas withdrawn from.

The hostages might be released in groups, one at a time, or all at once. Hamas will need to communicate the status of each hostage throughout.

There is a possibility that Hamas will not be able to find the remains of some of the murdered hostages. According to reports, there is some kind of classified clause that will go into effect if this happens, which includes searches by Israel.

The 20 living hostages to be released:
Matan Angrist
Ziv Berman
Gali Berman
Elkana Bohbot
Rom Breslavski
Nimrod Cohen
Ariel Cunio
David Cunio
Evitar David
Guy Gilboa-Dalal
Maxim Harkin
Eitan Horn
Segev Kalfon
Bar Kuperstein
Omri Miran
Eitan Mor
Yosef Haim Ohana
Alon Ohel
Avintan Or
Matan Tsangoker

It is possible that they will all be home by Simchat Torah—exactly two years on the Jewish calendar after they were taken hostage.

Part 3

Immediately after the release of every hostage, Israel will release a corresponding number of terrorists from prison. Most will be released into Gaza, some to a third country.

The released terrorists fall into three categories:

• 250 who are serving life sentences for terrorist attacks involving murder.
• 1,700 from Gaza who were involved with Hamas, but did not participate in the October 7th attack.
• The bodies of 360 terrorists, released in exchange for the remains of hostages murdered by Hamas.

The terrorists being released are collectively responsible for the murders of thousands of Israelis. Some personally carried out killings, while others planned and directed from behind the scenes.

Hamas wanted the release of arch-terrorist Marian Barghouti, and the bodies of the Sinwar brothers—but they did not make the list.
According to reports, Israel drew three red lines of terrorists who will not be released:

1. Terrorists who became idols or symbols to Palestinian terror culture.
2. Terrorists who targeted children.
3. Terrorists with life sentences who served less than a decade.
   However, these red lines seem to have been broken in some instances.

Amongst the living terrorists being released:
(This list is not for sensitive people.)

Maher Abu Srour
Murdered Shin Bet agent Haim Nahmani in 1993. He lured Nahmani into a meeting, then, with two relatives, stabbed and bludgeoned him to death with a hammer. Two accomplices were already released in 2013.

Ra’ad Sheikh
A Palestinian Authority police officer who took part in the infamous Ramallah lynching. In 2000, he beat Israeli soldiers Vadim Norzich and Yossi Avrahami to death with an iron rod. He was given two life sentences.

Jihad Karim Aziz-Rum
Kidnapped and murdered 17-year-old Yuri Gushchin in 2001. The teenager was abducted from his home in Givat Ze’ev, taken to Ramallah, and tortured and killed.

Maher Hamdi Zuhair Rashdi Al-Hashlamoun
In 2014, he rammed his car into Dalia Lemkus, then got out and stabbed her repeatedly to ensure she was dead.

Bahar Badr
Mastermind of multiple mass-casualty attacks, including the 2004 Tsrifin suicide bombing which killed 9, a Tel Aviv bombing, and other attacks. Responsible for many deaths and grievous injuries. Sentenced to 11 life terms.

Ibrahim Alqam
A senior Popular Front (PFLP) terrorist who attacked the Tzur family in 1996, murdering Ita Tzur and her 12 year-old son Ephraim, and injuring the remaining four family members. Even from prison, he continued organizing terror activity.

Fares Ghanem
Convicted of eight murders and numerous additional terror offenses. Sentenced to nine life sentences for his killing spree and direct role in large-scale attacks.

Part 4

Talks will continue for the implementation of the second phase of the agreement. In the second phase, Hamas is supposed to disarm, and give up control of Gaza. The IDF is then expected to gradually withdraw, and hand over control to a new security force and internationally-led government.

Hamas has not yet agreed to disarm; only to allow a new government in Gaza.

According to Amit Segal, Israel is pushing for a situation similar to that in Lebanon—in which the IDF can continuously carry out airstrikes against Hamas targets wherever they are in violation of the ceasefire agreement, and where the international force is not stopping them.

Some have hopes that this will be the end of terrorism from Gaza. Others are very skeptical that this is so, and only look forward to the release of the hostages.

According to Yoav Zitun of Ynet, Ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir are betting that Hamas will refuse to disarm, and the next phase of the agreement won’t come about. In this case, they expect that the IDF will retain control of half of Gaza, and small Jewish communities will be rebuilt in Rafah and Beit Hanoun—formerly Gush Katif and Nitzanit.

(In my personal opinion, Hamas is not going to disarm. Either they will pretend to, and Israel will be forced to withdraw and allow them to slowly rebuild, with the help of the many newly released terrorists,—or Israel will continue to hold half of Gaza, and eventually have to go back to the rest, and finish the job.)

**

This is the first time that Hamas greed to a deal in which they release all hostages in one go, without the IDF leaving Gaza in entirety.

Most commentators agree that if Hamas does carry through and release all the hostages, it will only be because of immense pressure from Qatar—and Qatar only began to want it after Israel struck Hamas terrorists in Qatar. Although the strike failed to eliminate its chief targets, it did succeed in telling Qatar that they are no longer immune to attacks, and can no longer get away with supporting terrorists.

Previously, Hamas may have turned to Iran for help, but Iran is too busy fighting for its own survival.

In words Steve Witkoff said to the Israeli government on Thursday night:

“The real hard work was that of the Prime Minister [Netanyahu]… There were moments I thought you should be more flexible, or that your country should be more flexible – but the truth is that now, in hindsight, I think we wouldn’t have reached this point if Prime Minister Netanyahu had not acted as he did. Thank you.

“I’m not just saying this from the mouth outward. These are not just words. The President also believes this. My President believes this. He believes that Prime Minister Netanyahu made very tough decisions, and there were less brave people who would not have made such decisions – and here we are today because Hamas had no choice. They had to reach this agreement.”